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Published on 10/18/2025
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Pakistan Meteorological Department: Forging a Climate-Resilient Future
Pakistan Meteorological Department: Forging a Climate-Resilient Future :
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) stands as the nation's vanguard against the unpredictable forces of weather and climate, playing an indispensable role in safeguarding lives and livelihoods. In a country highly susceptible to climate change impacts, the PMD's efforts in forecasting, monitoring, and early warning systems are more crucial than ever. This blog post delves into the latest developments and strategic initiatives undertaken by the PMD to bolster Pakistan's climate resilience.
From daily weather forecasts guiding agricultural practices to sophisticated early warnings for extreme events, the PMD's mandate is broad and vital. Its work underpins national disaster preparedness strategies, providing the scientific backbone for informed decision-making across various sectors. As Pakistan grapples with the escalating challenges of a changing global climate, the department's modernization efforts are setting the stage for a more secure and adaptable future.
A Leap Forward: Modernizing Hydromet Services with World Bank Support :
A significant development currently underway is the 'Modernization of Hydromet Services of Pakistan (MHSP)' project, a collaborative effort with the World Bank. This ambitious initiative, valued at $50 million, is a cornerstone of the Integrated Flood Resilience Adaptation Project (IFRAP). Its primary objective is to fundamentally transform Pakistan's weather and flood forecasting capabilities.
The project encompasses a comprehensive upgrade of PMD's technical infrastructure, including the installation of 110 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) across the country. Additionally, four state-of-the-art Fixed Weather Surveillance Radars and a powerful High-Performance Computing System are being deployed. These advancements are critical for improving the accuracy and efficiency of data collection, processing, and dissemination, ultimately leading to more precise and timely alerts for the public and authorities.
Forecasting the Future: Monsoon 2025 and Beyond :
The PMD released its 2025 Monsoon outlook, providing crucial insights for the upcoming rainy season. The forecast indicates that central and southern Pakistan are likely to experience normal to slightly above-normal rainfall from July to September. Conversely, northeastern Punjab and Kashmir are expected to receive enhanced precipitation, necessitating vigilance in these regions.
Accompanying these rainfall predictions is a warning of higher-than-normal temperatures across the nation. This combination significantly heightens the risk of various extreme hydrological events, including riverine floods, flash floods, urban flooding, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Such detailed seasonal forecasts are vital for proactive disaster management and agricultural planning.
Setting the Record Straight: Winter 2024-2025 Outlook :
Addressing widespread speculation on social media, the PMD recently clarified its official winter forecast for December 2024 to February 2025. Contrary to claims of an 'extremely harsh winter,' the department has dismissed these reports as unscientific and misleading. The PMD's outlook, based on validated global climate models, suggests a different scenario.
According to the PMD, most parts of Pakistan are likely to experience slightly above-normal temperatures, coupled with normal to slightly below-normal rainfall. This projection is influenced by the presence of a weak to moderate La Niña pattern over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which historically tends to reduce the intensity and frequency of winter weather systems in South and Southwest Asia. While localized cold spells due to western disturbances are possible, a record-breaking cold season is not anticipated.
Northern Pakistan Braces for Rainfall Deficit in Late 2025 :
Looking ahead to the last quarter of 2025, the PMD has issued a concerning seasonal outlook for October-November-December (OND). Northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and northern Punjab, is projected to face a significant rainfall deficit. This forecast highlights a trend of below-normal precipitation in these crucial regions.
Such dry conditions can have profound implications, particularly for agricultural sectors reliant on rainfall for Rabi crop sowing, and could lead to reduced soil moisture. Furthermore, warmer-than-usual temperatures projected for Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could exacerbate water scarcity and drought risks, while also potentially worsening smog formation in Punjab's plains and increasing the likelihood of dengue outbreaks. This outlook underscores the need for proactive water management strategies and public health preparedness.
International Collaboration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems :
In a move to further strengthen its technological capabilities, the PMD has engaged in collaborative development with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This partnership has culminated in the creation of a specialized cloud-based Early Warning Supporting System tailored for Pakistan's unique meteorological challenges.
This innovative system features an open platform and a series of toolboxes, providing enhanced functionalities for local information access, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and AI-driven severe weather identification algorithms. It also streamlines early warning information dissemination, enabling swift and effective tracking of meteorological disasters. Such international cooperation is vital for integrating global best practices into national forecasting efforts.
PMD's Broader Role in Climate Change Adaptation :
Beyond daily forecasts, the PMD is a pivotal institution in Pakistan's broader climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts. Given Pakistan's high vulnerability to climate change, ranking as the fifth most vulnerable country globally, the PMD's contributions are critical for national resilience.
The department actively participates in national initiatives aimed at strengthening climate resilience, including the development of a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and working in conjunction with other governmental bodies. Its hydro-meteorological data and expertise are fundamental to strategies addressing floods, droughts, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events that significantly impact agriculture and infrastructure across the country.