Giorgia Meloni's Enduring Grip: Three Years at Italy's Helm :

Giorgia Meloni, Italy's first female Prime Minister, has recently marked her third year in office, a significant milestone in a nation accustomed to frequent government changes. Since her right-wing Brothers of Italy party secured victory in the 2022 elections, she has consistently maintained a firm hold on the political landscape. Her leadership style is characterized by a blend of caution, discipline, and a deliberate effort to avoid the internal rifts that have historically destabilized Italian governments.

This period of relative stability has garnered favor from both markets and voters, with her approval ratings consistently hovering around 42%. Her conservative coalition, which includes the League and Forza Italia, also polls higher now than it did at the time of the election. This sustained popularity is a testament to a broader perception of competence and control, further solidified by her assertive presence on the international stage.

Economic Landscape: Fiscal Restraint vs. Structural Reform :

Meloni's governance model has been largely defined by fiscal restraint, though critics argue it has come at the cost of deep-seated structural reforms. Under her administration, Italy's deficit has seen a notable reduction, falling from 8.1% of GDP in 2022 to a projected 3.0% this year. This fiscal prudence has been positively received by rating agencies such as Fitch, which upgraded Italy's credit rating.

Despite these achievements, Italy continues to grapple with persistent structural weaknesses, including sluggish growth, a pervasive bureaucracy, low productivity, and an aging population. Industrial output has declined by approximately 7.5% over the past three years, and the IMF forecasts indicate Italy will lag behind the broader eurozone in economic growth. The reliance on the EU's €194 billion National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) has offered short-term relief, but questions remain about its long-term impact on sustainable progress.

Domestic Policies: Security, Education, and Constitutional Ambitions :

Domestically, the Meloni government has pushed through several significant policies. A notable area of focus has been on law and order, with the introduction of a security decree that imposes stringent penalties, including up to six years of imprisonment for illegal protests and rallies. This move, however, has drawn criticism for potentially restricting civil rights and freedom of expression.

In a move aligning with a global 'anti-woke' trend, Italy has also introduced new classroom restrictions concerning sexuality and affective education in schools. The newly adopted bill, championed by the Lega party, mandates that such education should only be introduced in high schools and requires parental consent, with parents being fully informed about topics and materials. This prevents 'ideological activists' and 'external experts' from discussing sexual issues in primary and middle schools.

A significant, albeit stalled, project of Meloni's government is the constitutional reform aimed at introducing the direct election of the head of government. While intended to strengthen the prime minister's powers, this proposal faces constitutional concerns and doubts about its appeal to coalition partners who might see their relevance diminished. The ultimate approval of such a reform would likely require a national referendum.

International Relations: Pragmatism on the Global Stage :

On the international front, Giorgia Meloni has cultivated an image as a pragmatic and Atlanticist conservative politician, effectively overcoming initial skepticism about her party's post-fascist roots. Her foreign policy stances towards Ukraine and China have been key in this repositioning, demonstrating continuity rather than disruption in Italy's global posture.

Despite past Eurosceptic rhetoric, Meloni's approach to the European Union as Prime Minister has been notably pragmatic. Italy has avoided becoming a contentious member state, unlike some peers, and Meloni has actively sought to build good relations with other EU leaders, including Ursula Von der Leyen and Olaf Scholz. This constructive engagement has largely been a source of relief for many European leaders.

Recent engagements include a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump, which underscored their affinity and sparked discussion within the EU. Meloni also recently provided the Senate with official communications regarding an upcoming European Council meeting, highlighting her active participation in European affairs. Additionally, she co-chaired an Aqaba Process meeting on combating terrorism and violent extremism in Western Africa, engaging in bilateral discussions with several African leaders.

Challenges and Criticisms: Media, Opposition, and Social Issues :

Despite her high approval ratings and stable government, Meloni's administration is not without its challenges and criticisms. There are growing concerns regarding press freedom in Italy, with the media reportedly facing increasing pressure and unprecedented attacks. Her tendency to avoid open questioning by journalists and the reliance on reporting only her statements have led to concerns about a less self-confident approach to the press.

The opposition in Italy remains largely fragmented and has struggled to form a unified front against Meloni, further solidifying her dominance in domestic politics. However, recent protests against the government's austerity measures and broader discontent over inequality and stagnation suggest underlying societal frustrations. A recent public spat with Italy's biggest trade union leader, Maurizio Landini, who controversially referred to her as 'Trump's courtesan,' also highlighted ongoing political tensions and led to Meloni condemning the remarks as sexist.

Social policies have also drawn fire, particularly her government's moves to limit the recognition of parental rights to only the biological parent in cases of same-sex parents. Gay rights activists have denounced these measures as homophobic, reflecting a broader trend of aligning with conservative social values.

The Brothers of Italy: Evolution and Ideology :

The Brothers of Italy (FdI), led by Giorgia Meloni, has undergone a significant transformation from a fringe far-right group to Italy's dominant political force. Founded in 2012, the party is a successor to the 'post-fascist' National Alliance, which itself emerged from the 'neo-fascist' Italian Social Movement established in 1946 by supporters of Mussolini's regime.

While the party retains the tricolor flame, a potent symbol from its predecessors, Meloni has actively sought to distance FdI from its fascist origins, particularly after the collapse of Mario Draghi's government. She has prohibited extreme statements and references to fascism, including the use of the 'Roman salute.' However, some academics and observers still describe her government as the most right-wing since World War II.

Ideologically, FdI is characterized as national-conservative and right-wing populist. The party's platform emphasizes lower taxes, reduced European bureaucracy, and a strict approach to illegal immigration, often advocating for national interests first. Meloni's viral declaration, 'I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian, I am Christian. And you can't take that away from me!' encapsulates her focus on national identity and traditional values.

Looking Ahead: Sustaining Stability Amidst Future Pressures :

As Giorgia Meloni enters the remainder of her term, the coming years are poised to test the resilience of her cautious strategy. The substantial EU recovery funds, which have provided crucial economic support, are scheduled to expire in 2026. This looming deadline, coupled with potential new U.S. tariffs, could introduce significant strains on Italy's export-driven economy.

If economic growth stagnates further, Meloni may find it increasingly challenging to maintain her current levels of popularity, especially without tangible improvements in the living standards of ordinary Italians. While her dominance in domestic politics and a relatively weak opposition position her as a strong contender for the 2027 elections, the enduring structural weaknesses of Italy's economy remain a critical long-term vulnerability.

Her ability to navigate these economic headwinds while continuing to balance nationalist appeals with pragmatic governance will be crucial. The outcome will not only shape Italy's future but also offer a compelling case study of modern populism in power, and whether stability can ultimately pave the way for necessary transformation.